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Fantasy Gaming Pool (Interest thread)

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  • HyphyKezzyHyphyKezzy The Best Full Members
    edited May 2013
    Nim wrote: »
    I'm still in, but I might be a bit late with my prediction list. It won't matter much because the game I'm going to list are all late releases.

    Doooo eeeeet! Just help us meet TG's minimum because I think this idea has a lot of potential. If it makes you feel better I'm a lot more comfortable doing this than play-by-post stuff myself because once I get my list out I don't have to worry about disappearing for a bit if life gets hectic. Although I do plan to pop in and comment on how things are going when I can.
    I'm using this list for my draft list. It was updated a few weeks ago and, even though it still has games on it that were released in the last week or so and some ineligible games, it seems to be the most complete list that I could find pre-E3.

    Nice! This is definitely more current than that IGN list and is going to help me put some games through the grinder tomorrow. Obviously this is all very new (at least I've never seen the idea before) but I feel that like fantasy sports we should really be playing a stats based game here. As much as I may want to I can't just go drafting all the players from my favorite team (49ers, Giants, Sackatomatoes Kings, RPGs, yo!). This thang has got to be cold and calculating. So I've come up with a bit of a system this evening and I'll be running the numbers tomorrow morning while I get coffeed up.

    Admittedly, the first part of the process is going to be the weakest. I've noticed that the top games on the list Adremmelech posted match up pretty nicely with the hype meter on the IGN list minus the games IGN is missing. So I'll compare the two more closely and try to make a list of a good 30 to 40 games that are looking hot. This will assuredly involve some gut calls which is what makes this part the most suspect.

    From there I'm going to take an average of the last 3 Metacritic scores from each games developers. Only 3 because, "What have you done for me lately?"

    Next will be any games that are sequels or part of a franchise. Again I'll look at the last 3 games in the series and average them out.

    Then I'll average those two out where applicable to get a final score. Hopefully taking both into account can at least help a bit with figuring out what will happen if a series switches developers for a sequel.

    For any games that are close (I haven't decided on a margin yet, this will depend a bit on how the results play out) I will favor first sequels, just because there's an extra amount of (janky, haven't really done much higher than arithmetic since high school almost 20 years ago) math, plus to a certain extent there's probably at least going to be some proven game mechanics involved. After that will be games with the most platforms announced (got a better chance for a higher score given the rules).

    I'll post (barring circumstances) the top 15 along with scores tomorrow to see what y'all think of the results. Other factor's I think we can take into account for the final pool could be stuff like if a game's been sitting in development hell, or if there's known money issues, or some sort of social controversy that's come up regarding a game. Hell, if this takes off for future years and someone gets ambitious we could get some half assed analytics of how well various sites anticipated games lists match up to final scores 538 blog style.
    Reads street English and speaks in collegiate - Ras Kass
  • NimNim _ Full Members
    edited May 2013
    Hell, I have some free time right now. So if we're going by games released after this E3 and next years E3, this will be my list (not using my head, using me heart):

    1. Project Eternity
    2. Wasteland 2
    3. Grand Theft Auto V
    4. Bravely Default
    5. South Park: The Stick of Truth
    6. Dragon's Crown
    7. The Last of Us
    8. Mario & Luigi: Dream Team
    9. Metal Gear Solid V
    10. Rayman legends
    11. Tearaway
    12. Thief 4

    13. Total War: Rome 2
    14. Witcher 3: The Wild Hunt
    15. Dark Souls II
    16. inFAMOUS: Second Son
    17. Pikmin 3
  • HyphyKezzyHyphyKezzy The Best Full Members
    edited May 2013
    All right. The first trial of the (patent pending) Hyphymetrics System has been run. After the ranked list with projected scores I'll drop some notes on any scoring weirdness and a few things I found along the way I thought were interesting. I started with 30 games but had to drop 2 when I found they were releasing before E3 and took into account sequels and number of platforms for the ranking in the case of ties.

    1. Batman: Arkham Origins - 94 - 10/25/2013
    2. GTA 5 - 94 - 9/17/2013
    3. Super Mario WiiU - 94 - 10/2013
    4. Tearaway - 93 - 10/22/2013
    5. The Witness - 93 - TBA 2013
    6. Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past 2 - 92 - TBA 2013
    7. Wind Waker HD - 92 - Q3 2013
    8. Dark Souls 2 - 89 - TBA
    9. Destiny - 89 - TBA
    10. Theif 4 - 89 - TBA 2014
    11. Mario & Luigi: Dream Team - 89 - 8/11/2013
    12. Dragon Age 3: Inquisition - 87 - TBA 2013
    13. Pokemon X&Y - 87 - 10/2013
    14. Pikmin 3 - 87- 8/4/2013
    15. Total War: Rome 2 - 87 - 9/3/2013
    16. Battlefield 4 - 86 - Fall 2013
    17. Mario Kart WiiU - 86 - TBA
    18. Civ V: Brave New World - 86 - 7/9/2013
    19. Beyond: Two Souls - 86 - 10/8/2013
    20. Watch Dogs - 85 - 11/19/2013
    21. The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 85 - TBA 2014
    22. Bayonetta 2 - 85 - TBA
    23. Splinter Cell: Blacklist - 84 - 8/20/2013
    24. Rainbow Six: Patriots - 84 - TBA 2013
    25. The Walking Dead: Season 2 - 84 - Q3 2013
    26. Rayman Legends - 84 - 9/2/2013
    27. Assassin's Creed 4: Black Flag - 83 - 10/29/2013
    28. Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain - 83 - TBA
    29. inFAMOUS: Second Son - 83 - TBA
    30. Project Eternity - 83 - Q2 2014
    31. Saint's Row IV - 82 - 8/20/2013
    32. Dragon's Crown - 81 - 8/6/2013
    33. TES Online - 81 - TBA 2013
    34. The Wonderful 101 - 80 - TBA
    35. Bravely Default: Flying Fairy - 77 - TBA 2014
    36. Castlevania: Lords of Shadow 2 - 77 - TBA 2013
    37. Wasteland 2 - 76 - 10/2013
    38. South Park: The Stick of Truth - 67 - TBA 2013
    39. Lost Planet 3 - 65 - 8/27/2013

    I was unable to generate a developer score for poor Remember Me and being a new franchise it has to just sit there and suffer unjudged.

    I also couldn't find which particular Nintendo studios would be responsible for Mario Kart or Legend of Zelda so those are just the franchise scores.

    With Splinter Cell I could only get a developer score for the team making the WiiU version which was 7 points lower than the franchise score.

    Other games with notable differences between developer and franchise scores (both favoring the franchise) were Castlevania by 8 points and Lost Planet by a whopping 18 points!

    The Witness is a weird case in that the only score I had to work with was Braid's.

    Game Freak is a remarkably consistent developer. I had to discard HarmoKnight for not having a Metacritic score which made it's last 3 games Pokemon games, all of which scored an 87.

    Looking forward to seeing what E3 adds to the pile. One I think worth watching for is a reappearance of Agent by Rockstar which may have jumped to next gen systems.
    Reads street English and speaks in collegiate - Ras Kass
  • TGBarighmTGBarighm Member Full Members
    edited May 2013
    Son of a gun! Our first projected draft order. I don't agree with it, but hey, that's why we're doing this. :P

    I'm surprised you don't have Destiny in there. If I understand Hyphymetrics right, its average score would be in the 90's (Halo and all that).
    1. Project Eternity
    2. Wasteland 2
    3. Grand Theft Auto V
    4. Bravely Default
    5. South Park: The Stick of Truth
    6. Dragon's Crown
    7. The Last of Us
    8. Mario & Luigi: Dream Team
    9. Metal Gear Solid V
    10. Rayman legends
    11. Tearaway
    12. Thief 4

    13. Total War: Rome 2
    14. Witcher 3: The Wild Hunt
    15. Dark Souls II
    16. inFAMOUS: Second Son
    17. Pikmin 3

    That's a great example, but that list is loaded with top picks. I wouldn't hesitate for a second to copy that list. I'd make a couple changes but that's it.

    And that's why there will be a draft.
  • NimNim _ Full Members
    edited May 2013
    TG Barighm wrote: »
    Son of a gun! Our first projected draft order. I don't agree with it, but hey, that's why we're doing this. :P

    I'm surprised you don't have Destiny in there. If I understand Hyphymetrics right, its average score would be in the 90's (Halo and all that).



    That's a great example, but that list is loaded with top picks. I wouldn't hesitate for a second to copy that list. I'd make a couple changes but that's it.

    And that's why there will be a draft.

    I know, I'm happy if I have 5 of those on my list when this starts.
  • TGBarighmTGBarighm Member Full Members
    edited May 2013
    I figured, it was just a good opportunity to point that out. Btw, I haven't mentioned it before, but it's gonna be a big deal when it comes time to play for realz, so for the sake of it not being a surprise...you guys need to list the date of release for your games. And it would be nice if you list your games in the order of their release. I don't like the idea of checking every list, every few days for new scores. I'd like to look at a list and see a game was just released and jump straight to that game.

    Oh, and someone grab Jormungand. He said he is playing, but hasn't reposted. There's an even 5 people right there.
  • HyphyKezzyHyphyKezzy The Best Full Members
    edited May 2013
    TG Barighm wrote: »
    I'm surprised you don't have Destiny in there. If I understand Hyphymetrics right, its average score would be in the 90's (Halo and all that).

    That's the flaw in the first step, picking which games to run numbers on. I just overlooked it. Civ 5 too now that I'm looking at it which was dumb.

    That was my morning so I'm done for today but I'll probably run those as well as the ones Nim has that I didn't get later and edit them in out of curiosity. I'll drop in release dates then as well.

    EDIT: JOOORRRRMUUUNNNGAAANNND! Get your butt in here. And I see you peeking ChickenGod and Quin. Join us! We need participants.
    Reads street English and speaks in collegiate - Ras Kass
  • JormungandJormungand Member Full Members
    edited May 2013
    Here are my predictions for top picks:

    1. GTA 5
    2. (Wii U 3D Mario)
    3. Wind Waker HD
    4. MGS 5
    5. Pokemon X & Y
    6. LttP 2
    7. Project Eternity
    8. Wasteland 2
    9. TES Online
    10. Watch Dogs

    I would have added 0x10c somewhere, but I'm sure it's too far off to be relevant.
  • FrozenbabylonFrozenbabylon POW! Full Members
    edited May 2013
    I thought 0x10c (Remarkably stupid name, btw. Damn, I hate Notch...) was backburnered here recently, anyway.
  • TGBarighmTGBarighm Member Full Members
    edited May 2013
    You guys sure have high hopes for the new old school PC RPGs. I'm sure they will be great games, but from a critique standpoint, they almost always lose marks in the production values. Not that they're not useful for filling out a list. A few good 7's is better than risky 8's that turn into 6's.
  • JormungandJormungand Member Full Members
    edited May 2013
    I guess I expect that, because they will be reviewed on a substantially smaller scale, there will be fewer low scores to contend with. For example, I imagine something like Project Eternity will be reviewed mostly by people who want to play Project Eternity. :p

    It's like with Xenoblade. It deserves its near-universal praise, but were it subject to a wider review market it would have faced lower scores merely for not being Call of Duty. Instead it was known to, played by, and largely critiqued by people who like RPGs.
  • TGBarighmTGBarighm Member Full Members
    edited May 2013
    Heh. It's kind of interesting to be analysing the critics rather than the games themselves, but hey, we all have our own styles. It's nice to see that happening so quickly. Personally, I'm just picking the games I think would be great...IF they play the way I imagine them to play, which is often much better than they actually turn out, heh.
    It deserves its near-universal praise, but were it subject to a wider review market it would have faced lower scores merely for not being Call of Duty. Instead it was known to, played by, and largely critiqued by people who like RPGs.

    But isn't that true for most games? It's not like Xenoblade was only covered by a select group of RPG loving websites. It was covered by a fair share of mainstream websites, so it's not like nobody held it up against Call of Duty. That would make the game look even better, actually.


    Anyway, as far as one of my HUNCHES go, I'm thinking South Park: Stick of Truth is gonna turn out very well. It's the sort of thing that falls into Obsidian's wheelhouse. The only thing that may hold it back is content, but game length is one of those things reviewers are willing to ignore for some reason. As far as safe bets go, GTA 5 is probably the best.
  • HyphyKezzyHyphyKezzy The Best Full Members
    edited May 2013
    Updated my list with the games Nim and Jormungand had, added release dates, and removed a few more I found with release dates before or in one case the day after E3. I'm leaving them in a pick order right now but when it comes time for the real deal I'll be kind and do it by release date. I'm going to go ahead and keep it updated as more prospects pop up, it won't be the sole criteria I use for deciding on my personal draft order but it does give me a nice starting point.
    TG Barighm wrote: »
    Anyway, as far as one of my HUNCHES go, I'm thinking South Park: Stick of Truth is gonna turn out very well. It's the sort of thing that falls into Obsidian's wheelhouse. The only thing that may hold it back is content, but game length is one of those things reviewers are willing to ignore for some reason. As far as safe bets go, GTA 5 is probably the best.

    Yeah, I totally am expecting South Park to perform significantly better than the score I generated for it. I think the THQ bankruptcy is going to work out in it's favor giving them extra time to polish it up where it could have ended up shoved out the door a buggy mess out of desperation for income. And I feel like Obsidian's developer score was already overly harsh before being dragged down by being averaged with some truly crappy past South Park games. In fact, I felt so bad for Obsidian I generated a pseudo franchise score out of the three games listed on Wikipedia as spiritual predecessors to Project Eternity (Planescape: Torment, Icewind Dale, and Baldur's Gate) just so I could bump it's score up a bit.
    Reads street English and speaks in collegiate - Ras Kass
  • TGBarighmTGBarighm Member Full Members
    edited May 2013
    Let's hope the delayed release is the result of Ubisoft getting a handle on their new franchises and/or for the sake of building E3 hype.
  • TGBarighmTGBarighm Member Full Members
    edited May 2013
    Come on, guys! Just because we met the minimum doesn't mean the game isn't open to more people.
  • TGBarighmTGBarighm Member Full Members
    edited May 2013
    I'm thinking of increasing the draft from 2 picks to 3 picks. Looking over some of the lists you guys made, 2 was starting to seem like too few. And then MS comes along and promises 15 exclusives at or around launch. I'm sure Sony has a few unnannounced titles up their sleeves too.

    Regardless of what actually happens, it sounds like there will be at least an additional 20 system selling exclusives between the big 3 coming out in the next year, and that's 8 more games than the number of picks we get (and the number could easily go into the 30's). Anyway, it seems like 3 top picks will be doable.
  • Ryan RadcliffRyan Radcliff Caballero The WoodRPGamer Staff
    edited May 2013
    I'll join, if possible.
    "Rules do not exist to bind you. They exist so you may know your freedoms."
  • TGBarighmTGBarighm Member Full Members
    edited May 2013
    Absolutely!

    Actually, I'll need to put up the real thread next week.
  • TGBarighmTGBarighm Member Full Members
    edited June 2013
    So, my final score for the "test run" version I did was 626 points or a 78% average (I removed Remember Me because I need to get the new thread up).
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